What is the Richmond VA housing market doing right now? Prices are still rising, but slowly, while buyers have pulled back. In September 2026 the Richmond Metro single-family median was $450,000, up 4.7% from a year earlier. Pending sales fell 13.9%, inventory rose 5.1%, and the 30-year mortgage rate averaged 7.24% in late October.
by Daniel Yoon | eXp Realty | Richmond, Virginia
I update this report as new monthly numbers come out. This edition uses the September 2026 CVR MLS figures released in October, the latest Freddie Mac rate survey, and the Virginia REALTORS® statewide report. Each county moves differently, so the breakdown below matters more than the headline.
Richmond market at a glance: September 2026
Single-family homes, September 2026 versus September 2025, from the CVR MLS Local Market Update. Richmond Metro is Chesterfield, Hanover, Henrico, and the City of Richmond.
| Metric | Sept 2025 | Sept 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $430,000 | $450,000 | +4.7% |
| Year-to-date median | $435,000 | $449,000 | +3.2% |
| Closed sales | 828 | 782 | -5.6% |
| Pending sales | 932 | 802 | -13.9% |
| New listings | 1,246 | 1,210 | -2.9% |
| Homes for sale | 1,762 | 1,851 | +5.1% |
| Months of supply | 2.0 | 2.1 | +5.0% |
| Days on market | 30 | 26 | -13.3% |
| Share of original list price received | 99.1% | 99.5% | +0.4% |
Condos and townhomes in the metro had a September median of $369,475, up 2.4%, with 3.1 months of supply. That segment has a little more room to negotiate than detached homes.
Prices by county and city
| Locality | Sept 2026 median | Change | YTD median | Days on market | Months of supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| City of Richmond | $392,500 | -3.8% | $426,000 | 22 | 1.8 |
| Henrico County | $435,000 | +11.5% | $426,000 | 20 | 2.0 |
| Chesterfield County | $464,000 | +3.7% | $450,000 | 28 | 2.2 |
| Hanover County | $528,450 | +2.6% | $510,000 | 39 | 2.4 |
| Goochland County | $650,000 | +8.3% | $735,000 | 44 | 2.9 |
Sources: CVR MLS Local Market Updates for Richmond City, Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, and Goochland, current as of October 10, 2026. Goochland had only 24 closed sales in September, so its monthly numbers jump around.
City of Richmond
The city’s September median dipped, but inventory fell 16.7% to 334 homes, just 1.8 months of supply, and sellers received 99.8% of original list price. Year to date, the city median is $426,000, down 0.9%. Older homes in the Fan, Museum District, and Church Hill trade on condition, so a single month’s median says less here than the comps on your block.
Henrico County
Henrico’s 11.5% September jump is a 1-month figure. Year to date it’s up 3.9%. Inventory rose 22.3% to 455 homes, so buyers in Short Pump, Glen Allen, and the West End have more to look at than last fall. My Henrico County guide covers the county area by area.
Chesterfield County
Chesterfield had the most inventory in the metro at 811 homes, up 6.6%, while closed sales fell 16.6%. Midlothian and the newer communities along the Route 288 corridor give buyers plenty of resale and new construction choices.
Hanover County
Hanover has the highest median of the 4 core localities. Year-to-date pending sales are up 10.2% and new listings are up 12.4%, so activity there is growing even as the rest of the metro cools. Homes took a median 39 days to sell. See my Hanover County guide for the details.
Mortgage rates and the Fed
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed average was 7.24% on October 29, 2026, down from 7.40% earlier in the month but above the 6.17% of a year ago (Primary Mortgage Market Survey). In April it ran between about 6.2% and 6.5%. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4% on September 16, 2026.
Fannie Mae’s October 2026 Housing Forecast expects the 30-year rate to average 7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 7.5% through 2027. Forecasts change monthly, so treat that as one view, not a promise. On a $360,000 loan, the move from 6.17% to 7.24% adds about $255 a month in principal and interest.
Will the Richmond housing market crash?
Nothing in the current numbers points to a crash. A crash is a broad, steep price drop, usually driven by forced selling, loose credit, or a flood of supply. A correction is smaller and often local, where prices flatten or slip as rates rise and buyers pull back. Richmond today looks more like a slowdown in sales than either one.
| What a crash usually needs | What Richmond shows in September 2026 |
|---|---|
| A surge of homes for sale | 2.1 months of single-family supply in the metro |
| Falling prices across the region | Metro median up 4.7%, YTD up 3.2% |
| Sellers accepting deep discounts | Sellers received 99.5% of original list price |
| Weak demand everywhere | Pending sales down 13.9%, the clearest sign of cooling |
Nationally, Fannie Mae’s October forecast calls for home prices to rise 2.7% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027, measured fourth quarter to fourth quarter. Statewide, Virginia REALTORS® reported a September median of $420,000, unchanged from a year earlier, with active listings up 20.4% and 3.4 months of supply (September 2026 report). Slower price growth is the likely path. A local dip in a specific neighborhood or price band is always possible.
What this market means for buyers
- You have more time. More inventory and fewer pending sales mean fewer same-day decisions than in 2021 or 2022.
- Negotiation is back. Inspection repairs, closing-cost help, and rate buydowns are reasonable asks on homes that have been listed for a few weeks.
- Rates are the main cost. Get a written quote and compare points against a seller-paid buydown before you write an offer.
- New construction is competing for you. Builders often offer rate and closing-cost incentives. My new construction incentives guide explains how to compare them.
If you’re deciding whether to buy now or wait, my is now a good time to buy guide covers that question on its own.
What this market means for sellers
- Price to the market, not to last spring. Buyers are comparing more listings, and overpriced homes sit.
- Presentation matters again. Clean, staged, well-photographed homes still sell close to list.
- Expect requests. Plan for inspection and closing-cost asks in your net proceeds.
- Know your block. Ask for a pricing review built on recent closed sales near you, not the county median. My pricing guide explains how that works.
What to watch next
- Pending sales. If they keep falling, closed sales and prices will follow in a month or 2.
- Rates. A move back toward the mid-6% range would likely bring buyers back quickly.
- Inventory. Statewide listings are up 20.4%. If metro inventory climbs toward that pace, buyers gain leverage.
- Insurance and taxes. Rising premiums and assessments change monthly payments even when prices are flat.
FAQ
CVR MLS put the Richmond Metro single-family median at $450,000 in September 2026, up 4.7% from a year earlier. By locality it was $392,500 in the City of Richmond, $435,000 in Henrico, $464,000 in Chesterfield, and $528,450 in Hanover. Condos and townhomes in the metro had a median of $369,475.
The data doesn’t point to a crash. Supply is 2.1 months, prices are still up year over year, and sellers are receiving 99.5% of original list price. What’s changing is the pace: pending sales fell 13.9% in September. Slower price growth is more likely than a broad drop.
It still leans toward sellers on supply, with 2.1 months of single-family inventory in September 2026. But buyers have more leverage than in recent years, with more listings to choose from and fewer competing offers on homes that have been listed for a while.
Freddie Mac’s national 30-year fixed average was 7.24% on October 29, 2026. Local lenders price off the same market, so your quote should be in that range before points and credits. Your credit score, down payment, and loan type change the final rate.
In September 2026, Henrico posted the biggest 1-month gain at 11.5%, though it’s up 3.9% for the year. Hanover’s year-to-date median is up 5.2% and Goochland’s is up 13.1% on a small number of sales. The City of Richmond’s median was down 3.8% for the month.
If you need to move within the next year, selling into a market with 2.1 months of supply is still favorable. Waiting carries the risk that inventory keeps rising. Price it to recent closed sales, prepare it well, and plan for buyer requests.
I update it after CVR MLS releases each month’s numbers, usually by mid-month. Freddie Mac rates are updated weekly on Thursdays, so check the Freddie Mac survey for the most recent rate.
Get the numbers for your street
County medians are a starting point. I’ll pull recent closed sales, active competition, and price trends for your neighborhood and tell you honestly what they mean for buying or selling. Book a time at cal.com/danielyoon or call 804-896-2694.
Market data is from CVR MLS via ShowingTime Plus (current as of October 10, 2026), Freddie Mac, Virginia REALTORS®, and Fannie Mae. Medians don’t account for seller concessions. General information, not financial advice.