Is now a good time to buy a house in Richmond, VA? For buyers who plan to stay at least 5 years and can afford today’s payment, yes. Inventory is up, pending sales have cooled, and sellers are negotiating again. Rates are higher than a year ago, so the decision should rest on your budget and timeline, not on predicting the market.
by Daniel Yoon | eXp Realty | Richmond, Virginia
The Richmond market in September 2026, by the numbers
These are single-family figures from the Central Virginia Regional MLS (CVR MLS) Local Market Update for September 2026, compared with September 2025. Richmond Metro means Chesterfield, Hanover, Henrico, and the City of Richmond combined.
| Area | Median sale price | Change vs Sept 2025 | Days on market | Months of supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond Metro | $450,000 | +4.7% | 26 | 2.1 |
| City of Richmond | $392,500 | -3.8% | 22 | 1.8 |
| Henrico County | $435,000 | +11.5% | 20 | 2.0 |
| Chesterfield County | $464,000 | +3.7% | 28 | 2.2 |
| Hanover County | $528,450 | +2.6% | 39 | 2.4 |
A single month can swing, especially in smaller counties, so I also watch year-to-date numbers. Through September, the metro’s single-family median was $449,000, up 3.2% from the same stretch of 2025. Condos and townhomes ran a September median of $369,475, up 2.4%.
What changed from a year ago
- Rates are higher. Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed average was 7.24% on October 29, 2026, compared with 6.17% a year earlier, per the Primary Mortgage Market Survey. It peaked at 7.40% on October 8 and 15. The Federal Reserve also raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point on September 16, 2026.
- Buyers have pulled back a little. Metro pending sales fell 13.9% in September, and closed sales fell 5.6%. Pending sales are next month’s closings, so this is the number to watch.
- There’s more to choose from. Metro single-family inventory rose 5.1% to 1,851 homes. Statewide, Virginia REALTORS® counted 30,001 active listings at the end of September, up 20.4%, and 3.4 months of supply, up from 2.9 (September 2026 report).
- Good homes still sell. Metro sellers received 99.5% of their original list price on average. In the city, Redfin reports 31.1% of homes had a price drop over the 3 months ending in September, while 40.4% sold above list. That split is the market: well-priced homes move, and overpriced ones sit.
Signs that favor buyers, and signs that still favor sellers
| Favors buyers | Still favors sellers |
|---|---|
| Pending sales down 13.9% year over year | Only 2.1 months of single-family supply, well under the 4 to 6 months often called balanced |
| Inventory up 5.1% in the metro and 20.4% statewide | Median price still up 4.7% in the metro |
| Inspection and closing-cost requests are back on the table | Sellers still received 99.5% of original list price |
| Rate pressure keeps some buyers on the sidelines | Homes in sought-after school zones still draw early offers |
So this isn’t a buyer’s market, and it isn’t the 2021 sprint either. It’s a market where preparation and pricing decide the outcome on both sides of the table.
What the rate change means for a monthly payment
Here’s the math on a $450,000 home, the metro median, with 20% down and a $360,000 30-year loan. Principal and interest only, before taxes, insurance, and any HOA:
| Rate | Source week | Monthly principal and interest |
|---|---|---|
| 6.17% | Freddie Mac average, late October 2025 | About $2,198 |
| 7.24% | Freddie Mac average, October 29, 2026 | About $2,453 |
That’s about $255 more a month. Run your own numbers with a real lender quote, not a calculator default, and add property taxes at your locality’s rate. My affordability guide walks through the full payment.
When 2026 is a good time to buy
- You plan to stay at least 5 years. A longer hold gives you time to recover buying and selling costs.
- Your income is steady and you’ll have reserves after closing. 3 to 6 months of expenses in the bank matters more than a slightly bigger down payment.
- You need a specific school zone, commute, or neighborhood. Waiting for a perfect rate can mean missing the right house in the right place.
- You’re pre-approved and the payment works at today’s rate. If rates fall later, a refinance is an option. Ask your lender what one would cost before you count on it.
When it makes sense to wait
- You may move again within 1 to 2 years. Closing costs on the purchase and the sale are hard to earn back on a short hold.
- Your income is about to change. A new job, a career switch, or uneven pay makes underwriting harder and the payment riskier.
- The payment only works at full stretch. If a $6,000 HVAC repair next summer would break the budget, give yourself more room first.
- You’re waiting on 1 tight neighborhood. Keep a saved search running, get pre-approved, and be ready when the right listing appears.
How to buy well in this market
- Get pre-approved first. A full pre-approval, not a quick prequalification, tells you the real number and makes your offer stronger. Here’s what Richmond lenders look for.
- Know your loan options. Conventional loans start at a 620 credit score under Fannie Mae’s rules, and HomeReady allows as little as 3% down. FHA allows 3.5% down with a 580 score (FDIC summary of the FHA 203(b) program). VA loans can need no down payment.
- Check first-time buyer help. Virginia Housing’s Down Payment Assistance Grant never has to be repaid, for qualified buyers using an eligible Virginia Housing loan. My first-time buyer programs guide covers how the local programs stack.
- Look at total cost, not just price. Property taxes, insurance, HOA dues, and maintenance change the monthly picture, and tax rates differ across the city and counties.
- Write a clean offer with sensible protections. Inspection and appraisal contingencies are being accepted again in much of the market. My guide to competitive offers covers when to push and when to hold back.
- Ask about price history. A home that’s sat for weeks or had a price cut is often where there’s room to negotiate repairs or closing-cost help.
For the wider picture, including how each county is trending, see my Richmond housing market report.
FAQ
Up, at a moderate pace. CVR MLS put the Richmond Metro single-family median at $450,000 in September 2026, up 4.7% from a year earlier, and $449,000 year to date, up 3.2%. The City of Richmond was the exception in September, with a median of $392,500, down 3.8%.
It’s in between. Single-family supply was 2.1 months in September 2026, which still leans toward sellers, but pending sales fell 13.9% and inventory rose 5.1%. Buyers have more room to ask for inspection repairs and closing-cost help than they did a few years ago.
Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed average was 7.24% on October 29, 2026, down from 7.40% earlier in the month but above the 6.17% of a year ago. Your own rate depends on credit, down payment, loan type, and points, so get a written quote.
Only if waiting fits your life anyway. Nobody can time rates, and lower rates usually bring more buyers back. If the payment works today and you plan to stay 5 years or more, buying now and refinancing later if rates fall is a reasonable plan. Get a refinance cost estimate first.
It depends on the loan. Fannie Mae’s minimum for most conventional loans is 620. FHA allows maximum financing, 3.5% down, at a 580 score. Better scores usually mean better pricing, so ask your lender how your score affects the rate.
As little as 0% with a VA loan, 3% with programs like Fannie Mae’s HomeReady, or 3.5% with FHA. You’ll also need closing costs and reserves. First-time buyers may qualify for Virginia Housing’s Down Payment Assistance Grant.
Talk it through before you decide
Every buyer’s math is different. If a 30-minute conversation about your price range, timeline, and target neighborhoods would help, I’m happy to pull the numbers for the areas you’re considering. No pressure. Book a time at cal.com/danielyoon or call 804-896-2694.
General information, not lending advice. Market figures are from CVR MLS and Freddie Mac as of the dates shown and change monthly.